The Quandary of Ron DeSantis

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis reminds me of a politician: I frequently feel like I know exactly what he’s doing while simultaneously having no idea what he’s thinking. 

A distant number two in the Republican polls – think any team ranking behind UCLA’s men’s basketball team in the early 1970s – DeSantis has continued to storm troop a path towards far-right conservatism, the fault in those stars notwithstanding. 

The fault in those stars is this: he can’t win treading a Donald Trump path, and he can’t win a general election listing too far right. In a country divided right smack down the middle, DeSantis is trying to – as bumper stickers here in the Sunshine State proclaim – “make America Florida.” 

But how much of America wants to be Florida?

My wife and I moved from our hometown of Philadelphia to St. Petersburg six months ago. Full transparency, we’ve had to reassure many friends and family that, no, we hadn’t suddenly shifted right – far right. We are proud Democrats – sometimes even liberal – from a Democratic stronghold that hasn’t elected a Republican mayor since World War II. But many wondered what we were up to. 

St. Petersburg is a left-leaning bastion in a state that leans far right – usually right, but now farther than any time in a generation. Florida has not been Democratic in any of the three main pillars of government – the Governor’s office or either house in the legislature – since 1998. 

DeSantis is doing something right, and being rewarded for it. After a slender 32,000 vote margin of victory in 2018, he won by a whopping 1.5 million votes in 2022. That margin of victory over former U. S. Representative Charlie Crist – by almost 20% - made him an outlier and star in a year when Trump’s coattails went cold and many of his backed candidates lost. 

What DeSantis did – tilting more conservative than prior – worked. But, so far at least, America is not Florida. 

Florida’s population is irrelevant for this story. What’s not irrelevant is the makeup of the Florida legislature. 

In the upper house, the Florida senate, Republicans currently hold a 28-12 advantage. In the House, they control 84 of 120 seats. This is what we call a super-supermajority. 

Taking advantage, DeSantis, since his second term started earlier this year, has wasted no time ramming through several far-right pieces of legislation, all hot-button far-right wish lists: a six-week abortion ban; favoring the use of taxpayer money to allow students more school choice; broadening use of the death penalty and making it harder for personal-injury victims to sue for damages. 

Supporters and critics were impressed or dismayed depending on personal views. 

But here’s the thing: America is not Florida. 

There are no supermajorities in Congress. Razor thin margins will probably not go away anytime soon. One will need to summon extraordinary powers of compromise and know how to work the room. 

Many have pointed out that neither are strong suits for Ron DeSantis. Many feel that, emboldened by his margins in Florida, he has ramrodded through legislation that others simply did not have enough votes or support to oppose. Not much compromise needed. 

Working the room? This is the man who, according to many reports, used to wear earbuds while walking the halls of Congress during his days as a U.S. House Representative lest other folks had the temerity to think he might actually want to talk to them. 

But the issue is not so much the progress DeSantis would make by improving his gladhanding. The issue is the issues. And the issues that comprise much of his platform in Florida might just elicit a big old case of yawn from much of the American populace. 

The issues that feed the news stream and those that folks actually care about when they pull the lever are frequently not one and the same. 

Last year, Ron DeSantis decided to pick a fight with Disney, whose east coast empire, of course, resides right here in Florida. 

Does Ron DeSantis hate Disney World? We think not; he got married there in 2009. 

But Disney made DeSantis’ skin crawl when they raised objection to a law he backed which would restrict discussions of gender identification and sexual orientation in schools. 

Catnip to his base? Quite possibly. Of concern to folks voting in a general election? Not if you read polls on the issues that matter most to Americans. 

Perhaps it would’ve been more prudent for DeSantis to call out the company, burnish his credentials and let it go. Make your point, but don’t piss off people who don’t care or, worse, oppose. And lots of folks think kindly of a company that has spread its pixie dust on practically every American at some time or other. 

But DeSantis didn’t let it go: the state, at the governor’s urging, decided to try and strip Disney of its self-governance powers from the special tax district that oversees its properties. The state’s plan was to install a load of DeSantis appointees. DeSantis called them out for “woke activism,” an issue that seems to raise more of his hackles than any other. 

Disney fought back, first by trying to ram through multiple initiatives before the new board would take over. Disney has since sued the governor for targeting it unfairly. And even some Republicans in the state have backed away from the issue, saying it does not align with voter concerns. 

Recent polling suggests that is the case. 

In a recent Gallup poll, 60% of voters cited the economy as their main concern. And the question is this: will that even be a convenient hang-your-hat issue for the Republican candidate in 2024? Inflation between summer 2022 and summer 2023 dropped from 9.1% to 3.2%. To some, the economy is doing fine and the issue is more President Biden’s stumbles when trying to highlight his accomplishments than a problem with the economy itself. 

Next was health care, cited by 33%. Then immigration; perhaps DeSantis helped himself overseeing the shipping of migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard but how urgent does that seem now? And forget now; the general election is 14 months away. 

Policing and crime came next; abortion and the environment trailed behind, each cited by 21%.

Very little about woke activism or nitpicks with corporate behemoths. The fact is that it’s not just that folks care about issues that hit them where they live; it’s that, to win an election, you have to trumpet your stance and accomplishments that hit a LOT of people where they live. 

Everyone is affected by the economy. Everyone is affected by health care. Not everyone is affected by abortion and very few people care a whit that Disney challenged Ron DeSantis about his support for a classroom measure. (To illustrate that: a recent report revealed that in Florida, there have been 1100 complaints about books since July 2022. Of those, 700 came from two of the state’s 67 counties. There were 600 complaints – more than half the state’s total – from two people: a teacher in one district and the father of a student in another. Let’s state the obvious: that is a total of two votes, hardly a supermajority). 

So what does Ron DeSantis do?

A week before this article was written, the governor turned 45 years old. That means he is 32 years younger than Donald Trump. Unfortunately for DeSantis, the gap in their respective poll numbers is even greater. 

The week of his birthday, the latest poll numbers revealed that Trump had a 69-31 lead head-to-head. DeSantis could throw a successful hail Mary and still be lagging by about two touchdowns. If the election were held today, he’d be losing to Joe Biden 42% to 38%. For that matter, he was seven points behind Kamala Harris and his unfavorable ratings topped his favorability by four points. 

Donald Trump is the new Teflon king. Four indictments? His numbers rise. Trump has been masterful at playing the us vs. them card, the them currently being the Justice Department and their so-called weaponizing. Trump continues to lead his minions into battle with whichever avenging sword suits him at the time and it’s worked out pretty well for him. 

DeSantis wields against Disney, books and, heck, even the Tampa Bay Rays who saw their dream of a $35 million youth complex just north of their home vetoed by DeSantis after the team showed support for gun control measures following, among others, the massacre in Uvalde, Texas. It’s not bad enough that they play in arguably the worst stadium in the major leagues and can’t pay for high-priced free agents? 

Perhaps DeSantis presumed the Rays’ low attendance meant people wouldn’t care enough. They do probably care that two of the worst recent gun massacres happened in the state. 

And the Special Olympics? They reversed a vaccine mandate for an Orlando event after DeSantis threatened a $27.5 million fine. 

Disney? The Special Olympics? These are the folks that raise the ire of the everyday American? 

It wasn’t always this way. In his first term, DeSantis approved measures supporting medical marijuana use and higher teacher pay and pardoned four black men wrongfully accused of rape. 

But COVID changed all that. An early supporter of vaccines – and the speed with which his current opponent rolled them out – he changed his tune and started arguing against vaccines and for the re-opening of schools and businesses. COVID deaths and hospitalizations in the state soared. Then he ramped up on the cultural issues and, voila, an election blowout win in 2022. 

He was savvy enough to see the demographic shift, which he of course helped usher. Though the number of registered Republicans in Florida barely changed from 2020 through 2023 – just over 5.2 million each year – the number of Democrats slipped from 5.3 million to 4.6 million. 

A theory? If DeSantis had gone just a little less far-right, would he not still have won reelection considering he won by 1.5 million votes? And maybe not alienated those who have no skin in the game for battles with Disney and the Special Olympics? 

DeSantis could use some good news. Any good news. His campaign rollout was a disaster. His debate performance, tepid. 

Maybe for his birthday?

Nope. That very day, the Washington Post reported that DeSantis – who has in the past trumpeted his blue-collar roots – had taken, but not reported, a flight with a wealthy doner to the Masters in Augusta, Georgia. And, sure enough, said wealthy doner, Mori Hosseini, a home builder, benefitted greatly from $92 million of pandemic relief for an I-95 project. 

Not so smart for a guy known for attention to detail: DeSantis could have merely repaid the gift with the cost of a coach fare flight and not run afoul of regulations.